Inflation does not necessarily move linearly

Policymakers and economists seem to have the implicit assumption inflation behaves linearly. They think the central bank will print more and more money and at some point inflation will slowly increase. I don't see why that should be the case. Fiat money works because people believe its worth something. Human beliefs can change in an instant. Lets go through some examples where beliefs change in an instant:

• You believe there are only white swans but then you go to Australia and you discover black swans [1]
• You believe your neighbor is good person but then gets convicted for committing a horrible crime
• You believe your souvenir from Mexico is a very rare object but then you find the exact same object on Amazon for 5 dollars
• You believe the dollars in your wallet are worth a lot but then you hear that the US money supply has almost doubled since 2020 [2]

I think most people underestimate the likelihood of hyperinflation.

Could we have a "bank run" on money? The possibility is small, but not as small as most people think.

Disclaimer: This is a quick blog post. I haven't done the proper research on this, so happy to discuss.

[1] example from Nicolas Nassim Taleb

[2] the analogy isn't clean because I'm comparing M0 money supply (i.e. cash) with M3 money supply